Introducing a scenario of hope changes the future.

1. Scenario Planning
   1. Mind of the fox
      1. One future: hedgehog
      2. Many futures: fox
2. Flag watching
   1. Religion flag
      1. Religious wars between Saudi and Iran
   2. Red flag
      1. Russia
      2. China
      3. North Korea
   3. Grey flag
      1. Ageing population
         1. Japan
         2. UK
         3. China
   4. Cloudy flag
      1. Anti-establishment sentiment because of rising inequality in society
   5. Green flag
      1. Ecological concerns
   6. Pandemic flag
      1. Much to do about
      2. Camels straw
         1. The world was in a fragile state before the pandemic hit
            1. China’s growth slowing down
            2. Easy money policy with low interest rates which led to massive governmental and consumer debt.
         2. Economy breaks the camels back
         3. Length of economic recovery is important
            1. Watch the statistics
               1. GDP
               2. Inflation
               3. Level of employment
               4. Not a “V” but a “U” curve
      3. Spain again
         1. Second wave of outbreak?
         2. Much uncertainty about virus
         3. Uncertainty about fatality rate
         4. Uncertainty about infection rate
         5. Uncertainty about cure/vaccine
      4. Tightrope
         1. A balance between lives and livelihood
         2. A balance between lives and economy
         3. Walk the tightrope until covid-19 has a vaccine or goes away
         4. South African scenario playing out
3. “May the fox be with you.” – Clem Sunter
4. Is there any way to get away from “the rich get richer” scenario?
   1. WW2 did wreck the wealthy 50’s 60’s 70’s was a time of global growth for all.
   2. It is possible after the pandemic is over when we move to a global inclusive economy.
5. Siyabulela Xuza
6. The world of work has changed. The power does not lie in big government or organisations. Adapt to small businesses as the way of the future. Small businesses are going to transform the South African economy.